Description
In this interview, on-chain analyst James Check looks beyond popular narratives to explain what the data says about Bitcoin’s current market structure and the outlook for 2026. Topics include sell-side dynamics, ETFs, sovereign demand, portfolio strategy, and long-term risks like quantum computing.
00:00 2026 outlook: “Down to go up”
00:07 Intro: Is the Bitcoin bull market over?
00:58 Bull vs bear today: what’s changed since April
02:49 Cost basis shift and why 95K matters
03:54 Bear market mindset — but not like past cycles
05:18 The biggest myth: “no one sells Bitcoin”
06:42 Long-term holder sell-side and a top-heavy market
08:48 Why Bitcoin didn’t crash despite heavy selling
10:15 ETFs and treasuries are only part of the story
11:36 Bitcoin is bigger than people think (liquidity shift)
13:23 The 70–80K “air gap” and downside risk
16:06 Why downside can be bullish
17:12 Base case for 2026: macro, liquidity, and risk assets
19:58 90% Bitcoin / 10% gold portfolio strategy
22:42 The quantum threat: risk, timelines, and reality
27:23 Panic vs opportunity if quantum arrives early
28:04 Outro
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