Description
Is Shift4 the Next Fintech Winner? Q3 Results & ROI Projections. In this video, we dive into Shift4's latest shareholder letter, M&A flywheel, CEO transition, and diversification strategy, highlighting why fundamentals are soaring despite a flat stock price since 2020. Explore performance highlights like 26% payment volume growth, 50% EBITDA margins, and guidance for $1B free cash flow by 2027—potentially delivering 3-5x returns. We also share our ROI projections and why it's our third-largest position.
Shift4 Earnings call and shareholder letter: https://investors.shift4.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/280/shift4-announces-third-quarter-2025-results
Book recommendations (No affiliations):
"One Up on Wall Street" By Peter Lynch
https://www.amazon.com/One-Up-Wall-Street-Already/dp/0743200403
"The Outsiders" By William N. Thorndike Jr.
https://www.amazon.com/Outsiders-Unconventional-Radically-Rational-Blueprint/dp/1422162672/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&dib_tag=se&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.OPMCpyuF8Ca1h4GYxeNBWOHncZ_svVlODWgjwxO4EuIIE3lsh3GgYNY09EWH7_TUnsfb7c_Cq57q_aR0jnYrTvsseEeO5Al6l1dRlsgcIdaa7nkOW9rzeefudnGBr5pJh6sR0E6AVLk2PK9P2L_OmP180n7HedK_jhmBEtIRZgR4YwWTuvwhX7q6Gay1zyelN90LCR4-tGmScreAvnffbkmNprgMj7TfgiyCRTmEFOM.ByFRPC7h1bGfZfdYuIIV8GqaPq2nqfUhhKQAFx88OYM&qid=1763007549&sr=8-1
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All videos on this channel are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I’m not a financial advisor, and nothing here is investment advice. While I strive to provide accurate and timely information, always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Your money, your responsibility. Invest smart — and stay safe out there!
Chapters:
0:00 Introduction to Shift4 Payments and Video Overview
0:35 About the Host
0:44 Important Disclosures
1:06 Stock Chart Analysis
1:28 Long Base Formation and Fundamentals
2:00 New CEO Transition and Stock Structure
2:53 Shareholder Letter: Unchanged Strategy
3:58 Diversification in Verticals and Geographies
6:16 Capital Allocation and $1B Stock Repurchase
8:19 Book Recommendation: The Outsiders
8:24 Shift4's M&A Flywheel Explained
9:17 Acquiring Products, Customers, and Geographies
10:33 Operational Efficiency and Cross-Selling
11:50 Generating Free Cash Flow
12:44 Q3 Performance Highlights
13:30 Revenue Growth and EBITDA Margins
14:24 Gross Profit Trends and Rule of 40
15:21 Growth Guidance and Most Likely Case
16:33 Organic Growth vs. Acquisitions
19:28 Teaching Point: Shareholder Equity and Goodwill
19:44 Analyst Estimates vs. Management Guidance
20:21 Peter Lynch Quote and Book Recommendation
20:46 Potential Returns and 2027 Free Cash Flow
21:54 ROI Projections and Assumptions
23:30 Conclusion and Final Thoughts