Description
In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed’s recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes liquidity more than the Fed, and more. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:44 Macro & the Credit Cycle
05:22 Quantifying Credit Growth
09:43 Grayscale Ad
10:24 Impact of Fed’s Hawkish Pivot
13:41 Recession Odds
16:38 Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy
20:28 Market Dispersion & Mag7
21:22 Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics
25:59 Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows
29:28 Grayscale Ad
30:16 Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con’t)
35:08 U.S.-China Trade Constraints
40:29 Bitcoin & Neutral Assets
47:21 View on U.S. Equities
50:57 Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance