Benjamin Cowen: Oil Spikes 35%

Oil prices have just surged roughly 35% in a very short period of time, and that type of move tends to matter far beyond the energy market. Historically, sharp spikes in oil often show up late in the business cycle, when the economy is already slowing and higher energy costs begin to pressure consumers, businesses, and financial conditions.

In this video, we take a step back and look at why sudden oil price spikes can be so important for the macro environment. Energy feeds directly into inflation, transportation costs, manufacturing, and consumer spending. When oil rises quickly, it can act like a tax on the economy — tightening financial conditions even before central banks step in.

We’ll also discuss how oil shocks have historically lined up with turning points in the business...