Video Description
Yesterday Polymarket priced this ceasefire at just 7%. It still happened. Bitcoin jumped over $3,000, oil crashed 13-16%, and the S&P is about to reclaim its 200-day moving average. Sounds like the correction is over, right? Not so fast. Ships aren't moving through Hormuz, the English and Farsi ceasefire texts contradict each other on enrichment, prediction markets give only 31% chance this ends by mid-May, and gold at $4,800 is telling you the market still expects inflation. I break down why this ceasefire is different from the three previous extensions, what the oil levels and VIX are actually saying, the dead cat bounce setup in equities, what Thursday's PCE and Friday's CPI will mean for the Fed and BTC, and how to track AI stocks with AIQ vs IGV. Plus BTC price action at $73K...
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