Video Description
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In this week's video, I argue that we remain in the middle of a secular AI trend funded by companies with the cash and contracted revenue to see it through but that markets are now extended after a huge run making the risk two-sided. The S&P closed up 88 basis points on the week yet is stretched, momentum suffered a sharp unwind, and the equal-weight hyperscaler basket (Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft) has slipped below its 20-day moving average. When the spenders stall, the tape is telling you it's tired.
The warning signs are correlation breaks. The bottom layers of the five layer AI infrastructure cake are seen through semis and industrials. Industrial momentum has rolled over with a MACD sell signal, and global markets, especially Korea and Japan...
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