Video Description
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The AI Bubble Didn’t Pop. Hedge Fund Leverage Did.
In this week’s video, I put the hoodie on and address the flood of “is this 2000 or 2008?” emails. The answer is no. The S&P 500 closed Friday just 2.7% off all-time highs. The same day, Brazil, Mexico, Canada and Europe were all up, and 350 S&P names rose on the week. The AI trade is what’s down. Credit is softening at the margin, with HY versus Treasuries and converts giving back summer gains. That is nowhere near GFC, dot-com or COVID levels, and Bitcoin barely moved.
The bubble that has popped is hedge fund leverage. Leverage has been at a record and has more than doubled since 2023. Crowded longs are concentrated in the...
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