Jordi Visser: 7-Sigma Shock: Is This the Start of an S&P Crash?

A rare seven-sigma down day in the S&P 500 put the market’s “immune system” on full display. I unpack why that kind of move is so unusual, the signals that flashed beforehand (positioning extremes, an S&P–VIX correlation break, and rising single-name vol despite a calm index), and how China’s rare-earth curbs plus tariff rhetoric became the match in a dry forest. I also map the knock-on stress in private credit, Tricolor/First Brands, BDCs, and junk spreads and what it means for cross-asset risk.

From there, I lay out a tactical roadmap: the levels that matter if rhetoric persists (a path toward ~6,229 and even the 200-DMA gap from June) versus the V-bottom setup if a bargain is struck. I show how I hedge these regimes with rolling VIX convexity and why “trading the chop” is the right...