Video Description
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In this week's video, Oil prices have finally have decoupled from equities for a day, breaking the negative feedback loop that dominated the last five weeks, but the real story is what's underneath: we are in a stagflation environment with prices paid above 75 and employment below 50 on the ISM, a combination that has historically preceded 20–48% drawdowns. The credit cycle is unwinding for the first time since 2007, with Blue Owl facing 22–40% redemption requests and private credit stress spreading to insurance companies and European banks. Meanwhile, the Fed is trapped, debt-to-GDP at 122% means they can't raise rates without risking a recession, and they can't ignore inflation that hasn't peaked yet.
A bull...
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