Video Description
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In this week's video, I lay out why this was the week investors finally shook off their tariff PTSD and started pricing in a fundamentally different market regime. The war continues, oil is spiking and monthly nimport prices for capital goods just hit the highest level on record back to 1988. Inflation is likely heading to 4â6% as crude's six-month rate of change feeds directly into CPI. Meanwhile, the S&P is down close to 10% off highs, the Nasdaq had its worst week since liberation week, and the global 60/40 portfolio is on pace for its worst month since 2022.
But this is not a recession story, it's a rotation story. Six of eleven S&P sectors are up for the year. The big weights that have led since 2007 are down; the smaller, commodity-linked,...
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