Video Description
Avi is back from two weeks on the road — Singapore, Istanbul, and Iraq — and Jonah has spent that time doing actual work on the credit problem nobody wants to look at.
They open on risk: the donut chain in Iraq pulling ten million a year because nobody else bothered to show up, Paul Tudor Jones’s “losers average losers,” why wealth is self-reinforcing, and the adverse selection problem that explains why the deal in your DMs is still open.
Then Jonah walks through CoreWeave. The bonds are in distressed territory, the CDS trades sixteen points up front, and six-year paper is at seventy-nine cents. He models the company burning more than thirty billion in free cash flow a year, every year, with all of it having to come from public markets. Zoom out and it’s roughly a trillion dollars of...
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